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Image for Does the "Warmest 100" reveal results of the 2012 Hottest 100 countdown?

Does the "Warmest 100" revealresults of the 2012 Hottest100 countdown?

Thanks to the work of a statistics geek from Brisbane the results of the 2012 triple j Hottest 100 may have been revealed a week early, forcing bookies to close the betting.

Nick Drewe has used statistics from votes posted to Facebook, Twitter and other social media hubs to create The Warmest 100, which he says is an accurate prediction of the final countdown. Drewe explained to The Vine that he noticed that the URL structure of each of the Hottest 100 votes posted on social media pages had the same pattern. Using this pattern Drewe discovered that each vote carried a unique identifier, and began searching Twitter for different search queries. This allowed Drewe to collect 35081 votes from 3602 entries and calculate his predicted list of the Hottest 100 countdown.

Last year’s Hottest 100 was compiled from 1.3 million votes, so the Warmest 100 is based on a sample size of over 2%. To investigate Drewe’s methods, The Vine contacted University of Queensland Chair of Applied Statistics, Professor You-Gan Wang who confirmed that if the votes are a random sample among the total potential of 1.3 million the list is likely to be 90% accurate. “I think with the top 100, you might get 90 right. You might get 92 or you might get 95. It’s unlikely you’ll get all 100 correct,” Wang explained. Drewe says as he collated more votes is became clear that that the number one song on his Warmest list broke away from the pack and became a clear winner.


Drewe’s list is quite different from the “real” Hottest 100 of the most played songs on triple j last year, but it’s not going to cause too much panic for bookies who had set tights odds on many of the Warmest list’s predicted leaders. Nonetheless, betting on the result has been suspended.

On Saturday, January 26 we’ll find out if Nick Drewe has becomes Australia’s very own Nate Silver when the Hottest 100 countdown airs on triple j.

WARNING: Only click through to the following link if you really want to see the results:

Head to The Warmest 100 for the full list of songs.

Comments

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Barry

Barry said on the 21st Jan, 2013

This has been done and discussed by numerous people at the Big Footy music forum of all places. Don't know if the chap who has developed this 'Warmest 100' has done a very good job considering he has forgotten to include Gold on the Ceiling completely while everyone else has it borderline top 10. This list from another person who has used Twitter to gather votes samples 4041 voters & 37708 song votes and includes the %'s.

1st Thrift Shop {ft. Wanz} 677 16.75% 1.80%
2nd Little Talks 657 16.26% 1.74%
3rd Breezeblocks 581 14.38% 1.54%
4th Elephant 478 11.83% 1.27%
5th Lost 448 11.09% 1.19%
6th Get Free {ft. Amber Coffman} 443 10.96% 1.17%
7th I Will Wait 432 10.69% 1.15%
8th Holdin On 428 10.59% 1.14%
9th Feels Like We Only Go Backwards 399 9.87% 1.06%
10th My Gun 361 8.93% 0.96%
11th Sweet Nothing {ft. Florence Welch} 357 8.83% 0.95%
12th Sleepless {ft. Jezzabell Doran} 333 8.24% 0.88%
13th Angels 329 8.14% 0.87%
14th Gold On The Ceiling 322 7.97% 0.85%
15th Default 318 7.87% 0.84%
16th Trembling Hands 302 7.47% 0.80%
17th I Love It {ft. Charli XCX} 301 7.45% 0.80%
18th Clair De Lune {ft. Christine Hoberg} 290 7.18% 0.77%
19th I'm Into You 285 7.05% 0.76%
20th Same Love {ft. Mary Lambert} 276 6.83% 0.73%
21st Not Giving In {ft. John Newman & Alex Clare} 275 6.81% 0.73%
22nd Oblivion 275 6.81% 0.73%
23rd Latch {ft. Sam Smith} 266 6.58% 0.71%
24th HyperParadise {Flume Remix} 261 6.46% 0.69%
25th Surrender 252 6.24% 0.67%
26th Coming Down 251 6.21% 0.67%
27th Feel The Love {ft. John Newman} 249 6.16% 0.66%
28th R U Mine? 242 5.99% 0.64%
29th Bangarang {ft. Sirah} 235 5.82% 0.62%
30th Laura 235 5.82% 0.62%
31st Gasoline 216 5.35% 0.57%
32nd Paddling Out 215 5.32% 0.57%
33rd Sun 215 5.32% 0.57%
34th Take A Walk 214 5.30% 0.57%
35th Thinkin Bout You 214 5.30% 0.57%
36th Hold On 202 5.00% 0.54%
37th Cherry Lips 201 4.97% 0.53%
38th Spectrum (Say My Name) {Calvin Harris Remix} 201 4.97% 0.53%
39th Can't Get Better Than This 199 4.92% 0.53%
40th Ho Hey 191 4.73% 0.51%
41st I Can Make You Love Me 184 4.55% 0.49%
42nd Hurricane 183 4.53% 0.49%
43rd Dear Science 177 4.38% 0.47%
44th Born To Die 176 4.36% 0.47%
45th Run Alone 168 4.16% 0.45%
46th Simple Song 164 4.06% 0.43%
47th Genesis 160 3.96% 0.42%
48th I Got Burned {ft. Tim Rogers} 156 3.86% 0.41%
49th Mountain Sound 148 3.66% 0.39%
50th The House That Heaven Built 145 3.59% 0.38%
51st Love Interruption 144 3.56% 0.38%
52nd Fineshrine 143 3.54% 0.38%
53rd Promises 142 3.51% 0.38%
54th Andy 139 3.44% 0.37%
55th Sleep Alone 139 3.44% 0.37%
56th Swimming Pools (Drank) 139 3.44% 0.37%
57th Ghosts 138 3.41% 0.37%
58th Tessellate 137 3.39% 0.36%
59th She's A Riot 135 3.34% 0.36%
60th Young & Dumb {ft. Bertie Blackman} 135 3.34% 0.36%
61st Fred Astaire 133 3.29% 0.35%
62nd Wild Things 132 3.27% 0.35%
63rd This Fire 129 3.19% 0.34%
64th Warrior {ft. Mark Foster & A-Trak} 128 3.17% 0.34%
65th Disparate Youth 126 3.12% 0.33%
66th Bad Girls 125 3.09% 0.33%
67th Survival Expert 125 3.09% 0.33%
68th Clique 124 3.07% 0.33%
69th Madness 124 3.07% 0.33%
70th Forever 123 3.04% 0.33%
71st Household Goods 121 2.99% 0.32%
72nd Pyramids 121 2.99% 0.32%
73rd The Best We Got 121 2.99% 0.32%
74th 45 120 2.97% 0.32%
75th All The Rowboats 119 2.94% 0.32%
76th Super Rich Kids 118 2.92% 0.31%
77th Just What I Am {ft. King Chip} 117 2.90% 0.31%
78th Lonely Boy {Like A Version} 117 2.90% 0.31%
79th Boy 116 2.87% 0.31%
80th Little Black Submarines 115 2.85% 0.30%
81st Love This 113 2.80% 0.30%
82nd Cough Cough 112 2.77% 0.30%
83rd Caress Your Soul 110 2.72% 0.29%
84th Follow The Sun 110 2.72% 0.29%
85th Chained 108 2.67% 0.29%
86th Heart Of A Lion 108 2.67% 0.29%
87th I'm Shakin' 107 2.65% 0.28%
88th Mercy {ft. Big Sean, Pusha T & 2 Chainz} 107 2.65% 0.28%
89th Myth 106 2.62% 0.28%
90th Draw A Crowd 105 2.60% 0.28%
91st Hollywood Forever Cemetery Sings 104 2.57% 0.28%
92nd Inhaler 103 2.55% 0.27%
93rd Internet Friends 103 2.55% 0.27%
94th Chronicles Of A Fallen Love 101 2.50% 0.27%
95th Float Away 101 2.50% 0.27%
96th Wolf 101 2.50% 0.27%
97th Brother {Like A Version} 100 2.47% 0.27%
98th My Heart Is On Fire 100 2.47% 0.27%
99th Silhouettes 100 2.47% 0.27%
100th Don't Save Me 99 2.45% 0.26%
101st Idea Of Happiness 99 2.45% 0.26%
102nd Spiritus 98 2.45% 0.26%
103rd Babel 96 2.45% 0.26%
104th Need Your Love 95 2.45% 0.26%
105th Do It With A Rockstar 93 2.45% 0.26%
106th Love Is All I Got 93 2.45% 0.26%
107th Something Good 92 2.45% 0.26%
108th Apocalypse Dreams 90 2.45% 0.26%
109th Rabbit Hole 87 2.45% 0.26%
110th Rattling The Keys To The Kingdom 87 2.45% 0.26%
111th Unashamed Desire 87 2.45% 0.26%
112th On Top {ft. T-Shirt} 86 2.45% 0.26%
113th Heard It All 84 2.45% 0.26%
114th Language 82 2.45% 0.26%
115th Heartbreak {ft. Chela} 81 2.45% 0.26%
116th Yet Again 81 2.45% 0.26%
117th Bless This Mess 80 2.45% 0.26%
118th Dance Bear 80 2.45% 0.26%
119th Down The Road 80 2.45% 0.26%
120th Ill Manors 80 2.45% 0.26%
121st Octopus 80 2.45% 0.26%
122nd Summertime Sadness 80 2.45% 0.26%
123rd Souls A'Fire 79 2.45% 0.26%
124th National Anthem 78 2.45% 0.26%
125th How Can You Swallow So Much Sleep 77 2.45% 0.26%
126th All Your Gold 76 2.45% 0.26%
127th Runaways 74 2.45% 0.26%
128th The Only Place 73 2.45% 0.26%
129th Maybe Tomorrow {ft. Lillian Blue} 72 2.45% 0.26%
130th This Head I Hold 72 2.45% 0.26%
131st Youth In Trouble 71 2.45% 0.26%
132nd Someone Purer 70 2.45% 0.26%
133rd Escape 69 2.45% 0.26%
134th September 69 2.45% 0.26%
135th Water Bombs 69 2.45% 0.26%
136th Wicked Games 69 2.45% 0.26%
137th Bloom 68 2.45% 0.26%
138th Do It Anyway 67 2.45% 0.26%
139th Jamaica 67 2.45% 0.26%
140th Karmageddon 67 2.45% 0.26%
141st Chasing Ghosts 65 2.45% 0.26%
142nd Die A Happy Man {ft. Jane Tyrrell} 65 2.45% 0.26%
143rd Don't Ever Want To Be Found 65 2.45% 0.26%
144th Passerby 65 2.45% 0.26%
145th Take A Card 65 2.45% 0.26%
146th That's What's Up 65 2.45% 0.26%
147th Wild Love 65 2.45% 0.26%
148th Teenage Icon 64 2.45% 0.26%
149th I'm Corrupt 63 2.45% 0.26%
150th Give Me Time 62 2.45% 0.26%
151st HyperParadise 62 2.45% 0.26%
152nd Sixteen Saltines 62 2.45% 0.26%
153rd Wasted Days 62 2.45% 0.26%
154th Off To The Races 61 2.45% 0.26%
155th Sharp Shooter 61 2.45% 0.26%
156th Cast Away 60 2.45% 0.26%
157th Neighbour Neighbour 60 2.45% 0.26%
158th Miracle Cure 58 2.45% 0.26%
159th Sweet Sour 58 2.45% 0.26%
160th The Wave 58 2.45% 0.26%
161st Where Ya Been {ft. Pez} 58 2.45% 0.26%
162nd Dark Again (Lights Out) 57 2.45% 0.26%
163rd Get In My Life 57 2.45% 0.26%
164th The Keepers 57 2.45% 0.26%
165th Above The Water 56 2.45% 0.26%
166th Born At The Right Time 56 2.45% 0.26%
167th Hearts A Mess {Like A Version} 56 2.45% 0.26%
168th Around My Way (Freedom Ain't Free) 55 2.45% 0.26%
169th Comeback Kid 54 2.45% 0.26%
170th Knee Length Socks 54 2.45% 0.26%
171st Playing With Fire {ft. Labrinth} 54 2.45% 0.26%
172nd Pretender 54 2.45% 0.26%
173rd Be Ready When I Say Go 53 2.45% 0.26%
174th Beauty In The Bricks 53 2.45% 0.26%
175th My Scene 53 2.45% 0.26%
176th Reptile 53 2.45% 0.26%
177th Ride 53 2.45% 0.26%
178th Dark Days 52 2.45% 0.26%
179th Tinderbox 52 2.45% 0.26%
180th Jah No Partial {ft. Flux Pavilion} 51 2.45% 0.26%
181st Seeing Red 51 2.45% 0.26%
182nd She's My Baby 51 2.45% 0.26%
183rd Sorry 51 2.45% 0.26%
184th Speaking In Tongues {ft. Chali 2na} 51 2.45% 0.26%
185th I Fink U Freeky 50 2.45% 0.26%
186th Sleeping Ute 50 2.45% 0.26%
187th 1991 49 2.45% 0.26%
188th Don't Wanna Grow Up Anymore 49 2.45% 0.26%
189th Drinking From The Sun 49 2.45% 0.26%
190th Tapes & Money 49 2.45% 0.26%
191st Broken Brights 48 2.45% 0.26%
192nd King Of The World 48 2.45% 0.26%
193rd Sunshine & Technology 48 2.45% 0.26%
194th Truth 48 2.45% 0.26%
195th Varuo 48 2.45% 0.26%
196th Wake Up 48 2.45% 0.26%
197th Empty Hands 47 2.45% 0.26%
198th So Good 47 2.45% 0.26%
199th Stay Useless 47 2.45% 0.26%
200th Dark Star 46 2.45% 0.26%

castle

castle said on the 21st Jan, 2013

#38 is missing. is it not good enough for the list?

mark2712

mark2712 said on the 21st Jan, 2013

the number 1 song is ok, but the clip is awesome :)

Hinee

Hinee said on the 21st Jan, 2013

I only looked at the top 3 as I still love the surprise on australia day, but they were exactly what I expected.

crob

crob said on the 21st Jan, 2013

so that's the first time I've knowing heard thrift shop........ to put it nice, not a fan

kyza

kyza said on the 21st Jan, 2013

Thrift Shop has nice swears, all good #1 Hottest 100 songs needs swears. I've been in that Thrift Store in Seattle, it's massive.

p1owz0r

p1owz0r said on the 21st Jan, 2013

Re Barry

Gold On The Ceiling is 14th

Barry

Barry said on the 21st Jan, 2013

Re Barry

Gold On The Ceiling is 14th

Was added later, as was #38. LoL

Oflick

Oflick said on the 21st Jan, 2013

I'd heard thrift shop before, but this was the first time I'd listened to it knowingly. It's not awful. It's not particularly good, though.

truthlies

truthlies said on the 21st Jan, 2013

Thanks for ruining Australia Day

hellboy1975

hellboy1975 said on the 21st Jan, 2013

man what the fuck did i just watch?

Piko

Piko said on the 21st Jan, 2013

Some may remember I did a similar count 4 or so years ago? Now I can't say what kind of a difference the triplej twitter feed thing had however there was a judged difference between what computer nerds vote for compared to the rest of Australia when I did mine. Note mine was based mostly on forum posts (sports, cars, music, gaming and fashion forums) and facebook. I wonder how many non nerds are twitter addicts? Times change. Anyhow I recall Sex on Fire just outside the top 10 on my count and obviously came in at number 1 and Sigur Ros came in ahead of sex on fire on my list but in the high 90's in the actual countdown. So take it with a grain of salt guys.

LukeWarm

LukeWarm said on the 23rd Jan, 2013

I like how the article has 'WARNING: Only click through to the following link if you really want to see the results:', and then directly below, a Youtube clip of the number one song. It's kind of a spoiler.

Braveheart81

Braveheart81 said on the 23rd Jan, 2013

Spoiler alert: the top two songs are the same two songs everyone has been predicting. The Warmest 100 list provided nothing new there.

p1owz0r

p1owz0r said on the 23rd Jan, 2013

Plus they are too close to call in terms of total votes....